Detecting Changes in Natural Resources Using Land Condition Trend Analysis Data

The Land Condition Trend Analysis (LCTA) program is the US Army's standard for land inventory and monitoring, employing standardized methods of natural resources data collection, analyses, and reporting designed to meet multiple goals and objectives. Critical to using LCTA data in natural resources management decisions is the ability of the LCTA protocols to detect changes in natural resources. To quantify the ability of LCTA protocols to detect resource changes, power analysis techniques were used to estimate minimum detectable effect sizes (MDES) for selected primary and secondary management variables for three Army installations. MDES for a subset of primary variables were estimated using data from 27 installation LCTA programs. MDES for primary and secondary variables varied widely. However, LCTA programs implemented at larger installations with lower sampling intensities detected changes in installation resources as well as programs implemented at smaller more intensively sampled installations. As a national monitoring program that is implemented at individual installations, LCTA protocols provide relatively consistent monitoring data to detect changes in resources despite diverse resource characteristics and implementation constraints.     

Risks posed by climate change to the delivery of Water Framework Directive objectives in the UK

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) is novel because it integrates water quality, water resources, physical habitat and, to some extent, flooding for all surface and groundwaters and takes forward river basin management. However, the WFD does not explicitly mention risks posed by climate change to the achievement of its environmental objectives. This is despite the fact that the time scale for the implementation process and achieving particular objectives extends into the 2020s, when climate models project changes in average temperature and precipitation. This paper begins by reviewing the latest UK climate change scenarios and the wider policy and science context of the WFD. We then examine the potential risks of climate change to key phases of the River Basin Management Process that underpin the WFD (such as characterisation of river basins and their water bodies, risk assessments to identify pressures and impacts, programmes of measures (POMs) options appraisal, monitoring and modelling, policy and management activities). Despite these risks the WFD could link new policy and participative mechanisms (being established for the River Basin Management Plans) to the emerging framework of national and regional climate change adaptation policy. The risks are identified with a view to informing policy opportunities, objective setting, adaptation strategies and the research agenda. Key knowledge gaps have already been identified during the implementation of the WFD, such as the links between hydromorphology and ecosystem status, but the overarching importance of linking climate change to these considerations needs to be highlighted. The next generation of (probabilistic) climate change scenarios will present new opportunities and challenges for risk analysis and policy-making.     

Evaluation of leachate composition by multivariate data analysis (MVDA)

Landfills generate emissions in the form of gas and leachate. The emissions are often measured within monitoring programmes. It is likely that the requirements of such monitoring programmes can be extended in the future, particularly in light of the increased interest in specific organic substances. Multivariate data analyses (MVDA) have been used to evaluate the possibility of predicting the content of specific organic substances from more common analyses. The results indicate that this is possible for a specific leachate. MVDA can also be used to reduce the number of analyses performed within existing monitoring programmes while retaining information about all the variables formerly included in the programmes.     

Geographic Analysis of Forest Health Indicators Using Spatial Scan Statistics

Geographically explicit analysis tools are needed to assess forest health indicators that are measured over large regions. Spatial scan statistics can be used to detect spatial or spatiotemporal clusters of forests representing hotspots of extreme indicator values. This paper demonstrates the approach through analyses of forest fragmentation indicators in the southeastern United States and insect and pathogen indicators in the Pacific Northwest United States. The scan statistic detected four spatial clusters of fragmented forest including a hotspot in the Piedmont and Coastal Plain region. Three recurring clusters of insect and pathogen occurrence were found in the Pacific Northwest. Spatial scan statistics are a powerful new tool that can be used to identify potential forest health problems.     

Monitoring Diffuse Impacts: Australian Tourism Developments

/ The scientific quality of monitoring for diffuse environmental impacts has rarely been quantified. This paper presents an analysis of all formal environmental monitoring programs for Australian tourism developments over a 15-year period from 1980 to 1995. The tourism sector provides a good test bed for this study because tourism developments are (1) often adjacent to or even within conservation reserves and other relatively undisturbed natural environments, and (2) often clustered, with resulting cumulative impacts that require detection at an early stage. Here we analyze the precision and reliability with which monitoring programs as actually implemented can detect diffuse environmental impacts against natural variation. Of 175 Australian tourism developments subject to EIA from 1980 to 1993 inclusive, only 13 were subject to formal monitoring. Only 44 individual parameters, in total, were monitored for all these developments together. No baseline monitoring was conducted for nine of the 44 parameters. For the remaining 35, only one was monitored for a full year. Before, after, control, impact, paired sampling (BACIP) monitoring designs were used for 24 of the 44 parameters, and power analysis in 10. The scientific quality of monitoring was significantly better for developments subject to control by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA). The key factor appears to be the way in which GBRMPA uses external referees and manages external consultants. The GBRMPA model merits wider adoption.     

The Information Cycle as a Framework for Defining Information Goals for Water-Quality Monitoring

/ The necessity to tailor information becomes increasingly urgent as the information revolution continues to generate ever-increasing flows of data and so-called information. From European experiences, a new approach for monitoring system design is suggested in this paper. In this approach, careful and detailed specification of information needs is a major contributing factor to the effectiveness of information products. To develop better specifications for information products, the process of collecting and transforming data into useful information requires careful thought and guidance. A dialogue between information users on one hand and information producers on the other is essential. This dialogue can be based on the information cycle, describing the continuous process from specifying information needs for water management and a strategy to collect information through data collection and data analysis up to utilization of information by water management. By following the respective steps in the information cycle, the process of information gathering can be completed. The cyclic character provides a quantitative means of connecting monitoring system design and operations with the information expectations and/or products required by management.     

Adaptive management of natural resources--framework and issues

Adaptive management, an approach for simultaneously managing and learning about natural resources, has been around for several decades. Interest in adaptive decision making has grown steadily over that time, and by now many in natural resources conservation claim that adaptive management is the approach they use in meeting their resource management responsibilities. Yet there remains considerable ambiguity about what adaptive management actually is, and how it is to be implemented by practitioners. The objective of this paper is to present a framework and conditions for adaptive decision making, and discuss some important challenges in its application. Adaptive management is described as a two-phase process of deliberative and iterative phases, which are implemented sequentially over the timeframe of an application. Key elements, processes, and issues in adaptive decision making are highlighted in terms of this framework. Special emphasis is given to the question of geographic scale, the difficulties presented by non-stationarity, and organizational challenges in implementing adaptive management.     

中国“达标排放”政策的实证分析及理论探讨

以固定点源烟尘排放为例,从排放标准和监测标准两方面讨论了中国现阶段“达标排放”的状况,指出当前的大气污染源达标排放实际上是“初步达标排放”,现在的排放标准和监测规范合适考核污染源的初步达标排放,不适合考核污染源的连续达标排放。排放标准的规定形式、监测规范和适用范围需要改革。现在的排放标准指标需要与监测规范和超标率限值结合起来,以促进污染源的连续达标排放。     

Monitoring and economic factors affecting the economic viability of afforestation for carbon sequestration projects

The Kyoto Protocol is the first step towards achieving the objectives of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and aims among others to promote ‘the protection and enhancement of carbon sinks and reservoirs’. To encourage afforestation for carbon sequestration a project must be economically viable. This study uses a model to analyse the impact on project viability of a range of carbon monitoring options, international carbon credit value and discount rate, applied to a Pinus radiata afforestation project in New Zealand. Monitoring carbon in conjunction with conventional forest inventory shows the highest return. Long-term average carbon accounting has lower accounting costs, compared to annual and 5 yearly accounting, as monitoring is only required every 5–10 years until the long-term average is attained. In this study we conclude that monitoring soil carbon stocks is not economically feasible using any of the accounting methods, when carbon is valued at US$ 10/t. This conclusion may be relevant to forest carbon sequestration projects elsewhere in the world and suggests care is needed in selecting the appropriate carbon monitoring options to avoid the risk that costs could be higher than any monetary benefits from terrestrial carbon sequestration. This would remove any commercial incentive to afforest for carbon sequestration reasons and severely limit the use of forest sinks as part of any package of measures addressing the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC.     

城郊道路交通污染个例分析

为建立和研究适合地面道路的宽路幅、高等级、支路多等特点的大城市城郊道路交通大气污染扩散模式,选取了受环境外来源影响较小的上海市沪青平公路的徐泾段,作交通大气污染实测和相关气象因子项目的观测。在获得详细实测结果的基础上,以NOx为例分析了大气稳定度、风向、风速、交通量对城郊地面道路交通污染扩散的影响。